Unlike the vast majority of the American boxing public and the vast majority of the boxing media, I'm not terribly excited by the prospect of Vasili Klitschko vs. Chris Arreola. And I say this as someone born and raised in the Los Angeles area (being from Upland, CA I am just two hometowns over from Sugar Shane Mosely) who really wishes the best for the exciting Angeleno's career. Like most Americans I would love to see a great US heavyweight really blast into the top ten and get a shot against Wlad for the undisputed heavyweight championship of the world. It only stands to reason that Vasili, the second best heavyweight in the world and the undisputed number one contender, would be the gate such an American would have to crash to get there.
Yet I don't think Arreola has any business being close to a fight with either Klitschko. I'm not denying that it will probably be an entertaining fight, though it also important to remember that David Tua was the most entertaining fighter in the sport (or at least the heavyweight division) when he fought Lennox Lewis. That did not end up being a barnburner. I'm not denying that the big Californio is a big puncher and an exciting fighter who will do everything in his power to make the fight a fight. I simply question whether that is enough to be worth it, and whether an entertaining knockout loss is worth destroying Arreola's career.
Yes. That's what I said: we are talking, potentially, about destroying Arreola's future in heavyweight boxing. Witness hot prospect Calvin Brock's brutal KO loss to little brother Wlad and his utter inability to recover from it. Brock was also a relatively untested prospect with no business being in the ring with the best heavyweight in the world. He got rushed into the fight without a genuine test against a world class heavyweight contender prior and has not been a serious heavyweight player since. There have been other semi-recent examples in other weight classes, most notably another untested American star (Jeff Lacy) taking a horrendous beating from a fighter (Joe Calzaghe) with whom he had no business being in the same ring. Lacy had been a trifle more hardened than Brock, but had still not faced a true world class contender at 168 lbs.
Of course it goes back even further. In 1982, popular heavyweight contender Gerry Cooney entered the ring with legitimate world champion Larry Holmes. Cooney brought power and talent to the fight and even managed to floor Holmes. However, he did not have the polish or experience to take a genuine heavyweight punch from a world class heavyweight for 15 rounds and suffered a terrible beating before losing by KO. His career was never the same, the knockout loss was too damaging. His best known fights in the aftermath of his world title challenge were violent and one sided knockout losses to Michael Spinks and Mike Tyson. Debate on whether Cooney wasd 'the goods' as a heavyweight contender is still contentious. I believe he was and that, given more seasoning against world-class heavyweights, he could have potentially offered a genuine threat to Holmes or another titlist. He simply was not ready and not only did he not win, his chances of ever being champion were wrecked by a damaging beating.
Cooney, however, had faced one world class heavyweight. He had scored one of the memorable knockouts of all time in stopping a superannuated Ken Norton in the first round. There was reason to consider him a top ten fighter, even if one still largely untried by adversity. Despite a greater number of fights under his belt, Arreola's position bears more similarity to that of another Holmes victim... undefeated prospect Marvis Frazier.
In 1983, after only ten pro fights, Marvis Frazier stepped into the ring with Larry Holmes having never faced a single world class opponent. Somewhat mercifully, he was dropped with one clean right hand in the first round. If he had stayed down, he might have taken less damage and rebuilt his career more successfully despite the embarassment of the KO loss. Instead, he got up and took a brief but frightful beating that prompted the referee to stop the fight. As with Cooney, Frazier's career was never the same. Arreola, despite 24 fights under his belt and a stronger class of opposition than Marvis, is in roughly the same position: he is stepping into a fight with one of the best fighters in the world without having ever fought anyone in the top twelve.
In Marvis's case, the fight was rushed by his management despite media and fan opposition. In Cooney's case, the media and fans urged the Cooney camp on. In both cases, the fight was proven to be a horrible mistake from which neither fighter nor their career recovered. Arreola is like Cooney and Lacy in that he has a lot of potential talent but has never been truly tested by the top fighters. He is like Marvis Frazier and Calvin Brock in that he is wholly unqualified to be in the ring with a fighter of the caliber of either Klitschko brother. Unlike any of the others listed above, he has been tested fairly hard... by fighters far below Klitschko's level. This suggests flaws waiting to be completely exposed by a higher quality fighter. As with Cooney, the media and fans are urging him to jump on the train despite the almost certain fact that the bridge is out. In Cooney's case, it was because he was a top heavyweight prospect and promising heavyweight contender and white. In Arreola's case it was because he is a fun heavyweight prospect whose viability as a top level contender is still in doubt, but he is American at a time when top American contenders are lacking.
I understand the desire for an exciting heavyweight fight that gets Americans excited about heavyweight boxing again. I'd love for such a fight to happen myself. Arreola could be the ticket to such a fight... but here and now his chances of winning are very low and his chance of having his career permanently damaged by a brutal knockout is particularly high. He needs to be tested against top fights. I'd have far rather seen him fight Eddie Chambers with the winner getting a shot at Alexander Povetkin and the winner of that fight getting a Klitschko fight. It would test all the participants more sternly, make them better prepared to fight the best heavyweights in the world, and decrease the chance that someone will just unravel when the big right hand lands on their chin. Neither Chambers nor Povetkin was at their best in their first fight, Chambers was sluggish and inactive while Povetkin threw a lot of punches with neither accuracy nor power. Since, Povetkin has been in a holding pattern waiting for a mandatory shot at Wlad (which he has cancelled once) while Chambers has looked much better. Either would be a far better test for Arreola and would give him experience with a top ranked heavyweight. Ideally, he'd fight several top ten fighters before facing a Klitschko, but those days are gone. The chances of losing out on the title fight are not worth the risk.
The fact that Arreola is going to this fight woefully inexperienced, relative to the step up in class he is taking, does not bode well for him. An upset is not impossible. George Foreman completely destroyed Joe Frazier despite being in much the same position before that fight as Cooney was before his fight with Holmes. Rcoky Marciano survived a war with Jersey Joe Walcott to win the heavyweight championship despite being the most protected heavyweight fighter in boxing prior. Never say never.
However, boxing history suggests the odds that he will be badly beaten and that his future career will suffer as a result are far better. This fight with Vitali, now, could very well spell the end of American heavyweight hopes for the early 21st century and not the beginning. I like Chris Arreola as much as anyone reading this and saying to themselves 'now you're just giving him no credit', but the fact is that nothing in his career to this point suggests he is ready for this fight.
That's a recipe for a career crippling beating.
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