Mosley-Mayweather: Thoughts and Predictions

This is awfully late for a fight that happens the day after tomorrow, but I was distracted by the relatively meaningless diversion of the heavyweight division for two days in a row.

So far I have seen two dominant narratives emerging around the Mayweather-Mosley fight. I don't feel either is entirely objective or accurate.

Narrative A is what I would call the majority view. Every boxing writer in Las Vegas for the fight thinks Mayweather is going to win and the odds in his favor are 4-1. Many people essentially believe Mosley has no chance, that his 38 years of age might as well be Bernard Hopkins' 45. I have seen fans write to the one unflinchingly pro-Mosley writer I follow saying that Mayweather will win because of his 'ring intelligence' in a manner suggesting that Mosley is an idiot. Internet boxing writer Ted Sares predicts 'a dominant UD' win for Mayweather. I don't dismiss the 4-1 odds (I'll get to that later) but I do think that all of this misses a great deal of nuance.

Narrative B is the equal and opposite reaction. Most prominent on this end of the argument is RingTv.com's Doug Fischer. He has been predicting a Mosley victory in his mailbag since before the fight was ever announced*. This view holds that Mosley has the combination of size, strength, speed, skill, and power to beat the pants off Mayweather. I think this would be very true of a prime Mosley. I think it's more realistic to recognize that Mosley is still very good and far from used up but most definitely past his very best.

So what is an honest, objective, realistic assessment of this fight?

I think the 4-1 odds in Floyd's favor and the 3-1 odds against Mosley reflect a certain degree of reality. Shane is definitely an underdog rather than the obvious favorite and if both fighters have the very best night that each is still capable of having, Floyd should win. I think odds somewhere between 2-1 and 6-1 are very reasonable. It's just that the intangibles make me unsure of exactly where in that range things fall into place.

Let's look at Shane first and let's look at him with an honest detachment. I don't want to look at him that way either. I'm born and raised in Southern California. My hometown is barely 30 minutes from Pomona. I'm the same age as Floyd Mayweather. That means Shane Mosley and I were 'neighbors' of sorts when we were kids. He is the one fighter I would want to root for instinctively above nearly anyone else. Still, you've got to bite the bullet.

Shane Mosley is 38 years old. While his performance against Antonio Margarito was nothing short of beautiful, his three previous fights were uneven at best. He had a lot of trouble with a used up Ricardo Mayorga before finally stopping him, was outboxed by Miguel Cotto down the stretch, and he put together a workmanlike but lopsided win over Luis Collazo. Four very different performances against four very different fighters. He's shown signs of his age at several points in his career and, while he's always bounced back well, it must be admitted that his age is a factor and might be a deciding factor. He's lost something. He doesn't move quite like he used to, doesn't pull the trigger quite as fast, doesn't beat the counter quite as smoothly as he did. Despite that, he's still able to move and pull the trigger pretty well. The main difference is that he gets countered more and, as a result, takes more punches. Against a pure boxer like Floyd, that doesn't help him. I don't think anyone denies Floyd is a better boxer than Miguel Cotto. Shane says he didn't expect Cotto to box and I think he came into the fight flat and might have beaten Cotto otherwise. Floyd won't surprise him by boxing, but there's still plenty of risk that Shane could come in flat from inactivity and/or overtraining. While it's not terribly likely, what if Floyd surprises Shane by standing in front of him? Mayweather stood in front of Jesus Chavez for 9 rounds and beat him so badly he quit.

Sure, Shane isn't a quitter and Floyd isn't going to beat him up the way he beat Chavez. Still, if Shane reacted badly to a surprise from Cotto then how would he react to a surprise from Floyd?

I don't think that's Floyd's likely strategy. Shane's admission that he failed to properly adjust when surprised by Cotto's strategic moves, however, suggest he is in danger if Floyd does do something he isn't expecting.

As for Mayweather, he is 33 years old. Once upon a time a welterweight was considered finished at that age. Floyd's periodic lack of activity, recent 'retirement', and lack of seriously punishing fights probably put his 'ring age' at around 27 or 28. So he may not be far off his prime at all. Still, in the 30s one starts to wonder. There aren't many guys Mosley's age fighting at Mosley's level. He doesn't always do it himself. Floyd's on safer ground but his age can't be totally ignored. Mayweather starts slow, is frequently more conservative than he really should be for too long, and is far from busy even in his most dominant rounds in the majority of his fights. His amazing athletic gifts and a degree of technical polish not common in this boxing era have allowed him to overcome these handicaps. Yet he has had close calls along the way and the fighters who gave him those close calls had things in common with Shane. Zab Judah and DeMarcus Corley were hard punchers who narrowed the speed gap enough to give Mayweather some tough moments. Jose Luis Castillo was bigger and stronger and was able to rough Mayweather up throughout their first fight. Mosley is both a hard puncher with good speed and a bigger and stronger man than Mayweather. This could be a dangerous combination.

I believe Mayweather has taken this fight because he sees it as the maximum possible level of reward he can get for the equivalent risk: like Oscar De La Joya before him, Mosley is an old man with a big reputation. I think Mayweather is in for tougher going than he expects.

My prediction and caveats will likely please no one in either camp.

I think Floyd will win. The fight will be close, sometimes entertaining and sometimes very ugly to watch, and the final scoring may be controversial. The final decision will likely be a majority or split decision or a very, very razor thin UD. There will be people who swear Mosley deserved to win.

As for my caveats, I think both are equally likely. If both cancel each other out, it will only ensure my prediction. It would not surprise me at all if that happened.

1.) Mosley has a lot in common with the guys who have Floyd a hard time early and he is considered a good puncher at welterweight. If Mosley uses his experience and what is left of his speed to catch Mayweather with a couple of good right hands and a fast combination early in the fight it could be a game changer. I don't think he KOs Mayweather, but the circumstances could unfold in which he gives Mayweather the kind of night he was given by the late Vernon Forrest. If Floyd really is underestimating Shane this becomes even more possible.

2.) Shane could also get old all at once. He is 38 and he has been in some very punishing fights. Forrest-Mosley I was more punishing than most of Floyd's career all by itself. If this happens he's going to have a very long night and people will be calling for his retirement. I can see a scenario where he craps out around round 10 or so and gives Mayweather a resurgence that makes the difference, even if Mosley is leading coming into the championship rounds.

The pressure is on Mosley to come in at the very best he can still manage in order to win and that can be a very difficult challenge to overcome. Floyd, because of both his comparative youth and his more defensive style, has more margin for error. That's why I can't pick against Floyd.

It's not going to be easy or lopsided, though. Floyd is going to have to work to win and, when it's all over, the sportswriters talking about how this will solidify his legacy may not think it did after all. Some of them may think Mosley won while others may think Mosley wasn't as much of a threat as they thought.

In the end Mayweather is going to win but he isn't going to make anyone happy who isn't already.

Just like always.



* The linked page is from this week, to show Mr. Fischer's position on the fight and his mailbag. The factual language of the sentence is not to imply this specific mailbag is older than the announcement of the fight.